麻豆原创

Background

When the听听was signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia in 2020 that secured the ceasefire to the 44 days long Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, a few things had become clear in the new era of the frozen conflict, and one was that Russia was there to stay.

The historically contested region, located in eastern Azerbaijan, saw low-level violence and skirmishes between then Armenian and Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republics, that then erupted into full scale warfare following their independence as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. The First War ended in 1994, with Armenia as the victor, and saw the occupation of several parts of Azerbaijan and the unrecognized independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Second War, fought three years ago, was a reversal, as Azerbaijan forced the removal of Armenian soldiers from its territories, and regained some land back from Nagorno-Karabakh, re-exerting its influence in the region.

Not only in 2020 did Russia sign a deal in the face of the West's failed previous attempts to end the war, it also secured long-term Russian peacekeeping troops on the ground and enabled Moscow to be the linchpin for both sides, via the creation of one of the most geostrategic locations in Nagorno-Karabakh鈥檚 history: the听Lachin Corridor.

The 2020 Ceasefire granted Moscow's control over the occupied city and surrounding area of Lachin, which up until September of 2023 was situated on the sole road linking Armenia and the internationally unrecognized, but de-facto sovereign Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (Also known as the Republic of Artsakh). There is no air travel allowed from Armenia to the NKR, so land transport is the sole method of transportation.

This meant that Russian troops were responsible for several aspects of political negotiation between Yerevan and Baku, as well as the ongoing survival of the NKR, as all of its supplies were transported from Armenia through that single road.

Situation to the Present

In 2021, Azerbaijan began to install checkpoints, customs stops, and video surveillance in areas near the Lachin Corridor. Baku attempted to restrict the transfer of supplies from they identified as Iranian vehicles, which they听听to Russia to deny access through the Lachin Corridor, as foreign vehicles violated the tripartite agreement. At this point, Moscow stayed neutral when considering Baku鈥檚 requests and continued business as usual.

In the Fall of 2022, the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace deal progressed and the city of Lachin was听听to Azerbaijan in August. In September, the Lachin Corridor itself was听听to fit a new road linking Armenia to the NKR, this being built by Azerbaijan.

But the situation escalated on December 12th of 2022, when听听Azerbaijani eco-activists allegedly concerned about mining issues in the NKR, began to protest at the Lachin Corridor. This effectively听听the transfer of almost all supplies and commerce from Armenia to the NKR. Russian peacekeepers did not stop the protests.

Eventually, only vehicles from Russian officials and the International Red Cross were allowed through, causing critical food and supply shortages in the NKR. Rations were later mandated by the unrecognized republic. The blockade was听听by groups like Amnesty International and bodies like the International Court of Justice.

The blockade听听for 137 days, ending on April 28th, 2023. At this point in April, Azerbaijan had increased its presence in the region as it听听a military checkpoint near the Corridor, despite Armenia鈥檚听听that doing so would further escalate the conflict. Azerbaijan, more or less at this point, had de-facto control over Lachin despite the tacit presence of the Russians, and would often听听Armenians crossing the Corridor.

Despite both Armenia and Azerbaijan听听on September 9th to open up roads in Lachin, just 10 days later the Azerbaijani military would cross the border with the NKR and begin a siege that would last about 48 hours.

NKR officials agreed to a ceasefire听听by Russian peacekeepers to lay down their weapons and听听their sovereignty. Baku has since fully moved into the territory as a mass听听of ethnic Armenians continues to flee to the Armenian border through the Lachin Corridor.

Azerbaijan in Control

Since gaining control of Lachin, the Azerbaijani MOD has been听听the Corridor to their advantage and have arrested several former NKR officials attempting to escape to Armenia. One of Karabakh鈥檚 top officials, Ruben Vardanyan, was听听in late September.

Other former top separatist leaders, namely Arayik Harutyunyan, Arkadi Gakusian, and Bako Sahakyan, were听听in Lachin during the past two weeks. The leader of NKR defense, Levon Mnatsakanyan, was also听听and brought back to Baku, as well as the former Foreign Affairs minister. Separately, Azerbaijan听听that amnesty would be granted for all NKR soldiers, barring any war crimes committed in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994).

Controlling chokeholds like the Lachin Corridor are crucial for Azerbaijan鈥檚 transition to next-step irredentist ambitions like the establishment of a听鈥淲estern Zangezur Corridor鈥�, and the听鈥溾�� of internationally-recognized Armenian territory that Azerbaijan wishes to cede for itself. This will occur if the recently听听鈥淓astern Zangezur Corridor鈥� with Iran falls through.

Keep in mind that a considerable amount of Armenian territory continues to be occupied by Azerbaijan, some since 2021. Funneling military vehicles and troops to invade Armenia鈥檚 Syunik province as to enlarge these holds embolden the claim that Lachin鈥檚 significance remains pivotal for the Caucuses.

Russian Troops in Limbo

Azerbaijan has already begun听听the role of Russian peacekeeping troops in Lachin and beyond, but has yet to release an official stance on the matter. Since the ceasefire, Russian troops have remained in the area and, according to Armenian sources,听听an additional 25 military posts around the former NKR. TASS officials听听the opposite, that the peacekeeping mission has in fact dismantled several former outposts.听听of an abandoned Russian outpost in Su艧a shows many of them vacant.

On October 9th, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin criticized an听听TASS report that said that Moscow was considering removing the peacekeeping troops from Lachin in a meeting with Armenia. He went on to say that now that a ceasefire has been reached, Russian peacekeeping troops have new听听to remain in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The specifics he cited were that Russian troops should guarantee the protection of any refugees who fled to Armenia who wish to return to Nagorno-Karabakh, which a similar听听was released by the Russian MFA last week. Galuzin also cited the fact that Moscow was working with Yerevan and Baku to delimit the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and to open it for trade and cargo shipments, which the Lachin Corridor would remain critical for implementation.

This part of the statement is interesting, as Russia is thinking of next steps for how it can stay in the region. This follows multiple听听that its supposed influence as a mediating power failed to prevent a conflict in the Caucuses, a region already occupied by various large players in the global arena that have been seeking to oust Russia鈥檚 dominance.

The Future of Moscow鈥�s Role in Question

Many hands听听to Russian鈥檚 difficulty in Ukraine being the reason it was so ineffective in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Moscow understands this as so. From the Russian perspective, it is beneficial to convince Azerbaijan to let their troops stay, as Moscow clearly sees fruit in the peacekeeping force evolving alongside any trade agreements brokered by Yerevan and Baku in the future. As well as monitoring the border and future infrastructure projects Azerbaijan will begin to implement in the NKR, much like Baku did with the town of Su艧a that it gained control over in 2020.

While Azerbaijan will likely build several roads in the future in the former NKR area, the Lachin Corridor will continue to be the primary point of contact between any budding economic exchange between Yerevan and Baku-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh. If the Russian MOD can strike a deal where its role remains as a primary and neutral player in the oversight of these developments, its aspiring influence over both sides stays in place, albeit in a different, more economic context.

The Lachin Corridor allowed for Russia to remain an officially neutral power that both Armenia and Azerbaijan sought to influence. Moscow enjoyed this position until September of this year, and Lachin is likely something that Russia seeks to reproduce. Azerbaijan with the support of T眉rkiye, continues to pressure Armenia to agree to a cession of their territory to create the proposed Western Zangezur Corridor. If Armenia, whether voluntarily or involuntarily, agrees to this proposal, Russia may see fruit in convincing Baku to allow a recreation of the rules in Lachin to apply to similar establishments in Zangezur. However, if the Eastern Zangezur Corridor with Iran is reached, Russian peacekeeping troops would largely be seen as pointless.

If Azerbaijan launches a military attack on Armenian territory with the aim of forcibly establishing the Zangezur Corridor, one of the conditions of a ceasefire could be a Russian controlled procedure that allows transport and commerce to flow through a demilitarized zone, much like the 2020 Tripartite agreement鈥檚 rules for Lachin.

However, this situation requires Armenia to perceive the Zangezur Corridor as an inevitable policy and capitulate their own territory. The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has recently gone on听听to say that either Armenia agrees to the Corridor, or听鈥渞emain outside鈥� of the economic benefits via the alternative route in Iran. In whatever regard, Russia鈥檚 current role remains in flux.

Concluding Thoughts

The pro-Armenian bias that many Azerbaijanis suspect of Moscow鈥檚 peacekeepers puts doubt into Baku accepting a continued Russian presence in Lachin and most other situations. One could argue that the last thing Azerbaijan wants in its reclaimed territories鈥搕hat it has yet to control since the collapse of the Soviet Union鈥搃s the remainder of Moscow in their backyard. Armenians for their part will also decry any further Russian involvement in negotiations, as they believe that Russia failed them on all fronts during the collapse of the NKR in September.

On the other hand, perhaps Azerbaijan will allow the troops to stay, in a show of good faith that further antagonization of Armenia is less likely than Yerevan fears, and perhaps more easily convince ethnic Armenians wishing to return to Nagorno-Karabakh through the Lachin Corridor that it is still safe to do so.

For Transatlantic purposes, a Russia that remains powerful in the Caucuses, a region it considers under its sphere of influence, hinders NATO and EU efforts to provide effective and mediating response for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russian troops remaining in Lachin and Azerbaijan at-large complicates the extensive relations between Baku and T眉rkiye, a NATO member, as well as the ongoing oil and energy negotiations between Azerbaijan and certain EU member states.听

The events of October may have driven Armenia听听to the West, but Moscow remaining as the in-between听for peace and a possible Azerbaijani invasion into Armenian territory, means Armenia still has to keep Russia close. This issue is an obstacle for Yerevan to further pivot towards the Transatlantic, as it wishes to do.

Legitimately countering Russia means targeting the areas where it holds political capital, and Lachin certainly is one of those areas. Perhaps the EU can convince Azerbaijan that a contingent force is beneficial for both them and Armenia, but that Russia is the wrong party to use. However, the ambiguity of Moscow鈥檚 troops enforcement allows Azerbaijan to make the military maneuvers like last month and is likely to use in the future.

Concessions would have to be made by the West to not only convince Baku to allow for a continued 鈥渙ccupation鈥� of their affairs via another country, but to replace the ones they already have now for those with more rigid rules of engagement.

Lachin remains politically and militarily strategic under Azerbaijani control as to punish former NKR officials, increasing their hold in the region, and as a launch point in potential future conflicts with Armenia. For Russia, Lachin鈥檚 rules and procedures are crucial in convincing Baku that any future听鈥淐orridors鈥� should be mediated and monitored by Russia, as Lachin was for the three years of its existence in the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.